Photo : CSIS
Photo : CSIS
War in Ukraine: Days 591 & 592
By Rishika Yadav
War on Ground
On 08 October, Ukraine’s Defence Forces conducted an offensive operation in the Melitopol sector and offensive actions in the Bakhmut sector. It is reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The report says it is gradually liberating occupied territories and consolidating their positions. There were 68 combat clashes, eight missile attacks, and 34 airstrikes by Russia’s army. Ukraine’s forces successfully inflicted losses on occupying troops, with partial success in the Donetsk region. Ukraine’s aircraft launched strikes on Russia’s forces and anti-aircraft missile systems. However, missile forces targeted Russia’s artillery and manpower.
On 07 October, according to Oleh Kiper, Head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration, a missile attack by Russia’s troops targeted Odesa. The victims sustained injuries from glass fragments but have received necessary medical assistance. The attack focused on civilian and port infrastructure, hitting a guest house and granary near a port in Odesa district. The attack involved Oniks supersonic anti-ship missiles launched from the Bastion coastal missile system in Crimea.
On 08 October, in the Donetsk region, Russia’s forces launched an Iskander cruise missile at the town of Kostyantynivka. It resulted in four injured residents, including a nine year old child. A pre-trial investigation has been initiated into the violation of laws and customs of war. On 07 October, Russia’s military also killed a resident of Donetsk region.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 07 October, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, along with Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan’s President, and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan’s President, initiated the supply of Russia’s produced gas to Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan. This marks the first time Russia’s gas is being sent to Central Asia. The project aims to enhance regional energy security and provides Uzbekistan with an additional energy source for heating and electricity. Kazakhstan will also benefit from increased gasification in its northern and eastern regions. Putin emphasized Russia’s commitment to being a reliable gas supplier and expressed readiness for further cooperation with its partners in the region.
On 07 October, Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s Ambassador to the US, criticized Washington’s decision to expel two Russia’s diplomats. She called the move “banal revenge” in response to Moscow’s expulsion of two Americans last month. He claimed the expelled US diplomats were interfering in Russia’s internal affairs and undermining its national security.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 06 October, satellite imagery revealed a significant increase in rail traffic along the North Korea-Russia border. It comes following a recent meeting between Putin and Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader. The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies’ project, Beyond Parallel, reported this unprecedented surge. The report says 73 freight railcars spotted at North Korea’s Tumangang Rail Facility. This activity is believed to indicate North Korea’s supply of arms and ammunition to Russia.
On 07 October, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary-General, praised Germany’s decision to provide another Patriot air defence system to Ukraine. However, he stressed the importance of stopping Putin in his invasion of Ukraine. He warned that if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he may resort to the use of force in the future. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s Chancellor, expressed similar concerns about escalation. He emphasized the need for Germany not to become directly involved in the conflict, explaining his decision not to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
On 07 October, Institute for the Study of War (ISW) gave its Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. It reported that the Kremlin is strategically leveraging the recent Hamas attacks in Israel to divert attention away from the conflict in Ukraine. It explained how Russia is employing narratives that blame the West for neglecting the Middle East in favor of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia’s information sources have shifted their focus to Israel, potentially impacting Ukraine-related news coverage.
On 08 October, the UK’s Ministry of Defence gave its intelligence report on the Ukraine war. It reported that the Velyka Novosilka sector, near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, has seen reduced fighting over the past month. It is seen compared to the intense clashes in June to July 2023. Ukraine likely reclaimed approximately 125 square kilometers of territory in this area during the summer. Ukraine’s operations here have constrained Russia’s 36th and fifth Combined Arms Armies from the Eastern Military District.
References
Roman Petrenko, “Israel's right to defence is beyond question – Zelenskyy,” Ukrainska Pravda, 07 October 2023
“Four people injured in night missile attack on Odesa region,” Ukrinform, 07 October 2023
“AFU continue offensive in Melitopol, Bakhmut sectors – General Staff,” Ukrinform, 08 October 2023
“Child among wounded as Russian Iskander missile hits Kostiantynivka,” Ukrinform, 08 October 2023
“Kherson RMA shows consequences of enemy attack,” Ukrinform, 08 October 2023
“Russia expresses concern over Palestinian-Israeli conflict escalation – Foreign Ministry,” TASS, 07 October 2023
“US Expulsion of Russian Diplomats ‘Banal Revenge’ – Ambassador,” The Moscow Times, 07 October 2023
“Putin, Mirziyoyev, Tokayev launch supplies of Russian gas to Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan,” TASS, 07 October 2023
“Stoltenberg praises Berlin, says 'if Putin wins war, he will probably use force again',” Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2023
“Russian offensive campaign assessment, October 7, 2023,” ISW, 07 October 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 08 October 2023,” UK’s Ministry of Defence, 08 October 2023
“Mideast violence benefits Russia, adds to migration pressure on EU, Polish president says,” Reuters, 08 October 2023
“Dramatic Increase in DPRK-Russia Border Rail Traffic After Kim-Putin Summit,” Beyond Parallel, 06 October 2023